47. Gap Model of the Visegrad Group (apríl 2018)

We estimate a medium scale gap model of the Visegrad Group including core macroeconomic variables as aggregate demand, aggregate supply, interest rates, exchange rates and unemployment rates that is further enriched by a fiscal block. The model takes a form of global projection model, since incorporating mutual linkages between the economies and their most important trading partner, an economy of the euro area. Even though proposed in mostly linear form and not properly derived from micro-foundations as standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, combination of relatively simple structure together with plausible impulse responses makes the model suitable for policy analysis. In addition, since we model trading partners of Slovakia as endogenous, we can capture spillovers between the countries and their final impact on the domestic economy. Enrichment for a fiscal block makes the model applicable also for fiscal policy purposes.