Headwinds in the Economy Are Strengthening (September 2025)

The Slovak economy will decelerate against the backdrop of high uncertainty in global trade. GDP will increase by 0.8%, dragged down by weaker net exports. Domestic demand, however, will strengthen. Household consumption will be supported by a substantial increase in wages, which, even after accounting for higher prices, will rise by 2.3%. Gross capital formation will benefit from investments financed through Slovakia’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), though global trade uncertainty will weigh on investment activity. In 2026, GDP is expected to grow by 1.3% as RRP resources peak. Employment will stagnate and the amount of available labor will gradually diminish. Labor demand will cool slightly, yet the labor market will remain stable. Exports will remain subdued, recovering only with the launch of Volvo’s production in 2027. Toward the end of the forecast horizon, the economy will be supported by the absorption of EU funds; however, adverse demographics will deprive the economy of stronger growth impulses. Risks to the forecast include the uncertain evolution of global trade and the potential underutilization of RRP resources.