Macroeconomic forecasts

Macroeconomic forecasts

The IFP, under the Ministry of Finance, is liable for the preparation and updating of short-term and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts for the Slovak economy.   

Medium-term forecasts serve as a basis for compiling a multiple-budget of public finance and for preparing or updating the Convergence Programme of the Slovak Republic. The subject of forecasting includes the following indicators: generation of the GDP in current and fixed prices and the structure of its use; foreign trade and a current account of balance of payments; the inflation rate through the growth of the CPI, growth of manufacturers’ prices and growth of deflators; the labour market – average nominal and real wage in the national economy, rate of employment (according to LFS and statistical reporting) and that of unemployment (according to LFS and registered available number), and other derived indicators. Predictions can be made on the understanding that a procedure planned for public finance consolidation is followed and upon certain expectations as to the development of exchange rates SKK/EUR and SKK/USD and subject to implicit forecasts of the development of exchange rates, i.e. a monetary policy tool. Forecasts for the development of the external environment accord, with the most recently updated forecasts published by the EC and OECD. The chosen content and form of presentation of forecasts for selected indicators of the Slovak economy are identical with the presentation of results achieved by the Macroeconomic Forecasting Committee. Short-term forecasts are prepared in such a structure and frequency as required by the EC and OECD, in particular in Spring and Autumn, and separately for each of the authorities.

The EC and OECD compare their own forecasts with those submitted and, following discussions with the makers of the national forecasts, adjust their own forecasts of the development of individual economies. The outcome is presented in¢ respective EC and OECD reports regarding the anticipated development of particular economies and their groupings.

 Macroeconomic forecasting committee

In order to achieve higher transparency and objectivity of macroeconomic forecasts, the Ministry of Finance has appoached renowned and independent institutions  and set up a Macroeconomic Forecasting Committee. Members of the Committee are currently the representatives from the following institutions: MF SR, NBS, SAV, Infostat, ČSOB, Slovenská Sporiteľňa, Tatra Banka, UniCredit Bank, VÚB, KRRZ and ŠÚ SR. The Committee meets regularly at least twice a year before preparing the starting points-related information and finalizing the draft state budget itself. The Committee discusses the preliminary forecast delivered by the Ministry of Finance, which can be subsequently modified respecting the prevailing opinion of the Committee. The outcome of such discussions includes, among other things, an overall evaluation of the character of the said forecasts, i.e. whether the forecast is conservative, realistic, or optimistic. The Ministry’s medium-term macroeconomic forecast thus accepted is a basis for preparing background information on starting points for a multi-year budget for next three years and forms a part of strategic governmental documents.