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One wave after the other (June 2021)

The economy has weathered the second wave of the pandemic with relatively minor losses. GDP will grow by 4.6 per cent in 2021 and the economy will recover to its pre-crisis levels over the course of this year. The pandemic has shifted consumers´ preferences from services to goods which benefits world trade, including Slovak exports. The second wave of the pandemic led to a fall in household consumption at the beginning of the year, but with a more favorable epidemic development, the recovery seems swift at the moment. As a result, Slovak GDP could reach its pre-crisis level sooner, before the end of this year. In 2022, output growth will reach 5 per cent,  aided by the Recovery and Resilience Plan, as well as a post-crisis revival of private investment. At the same time, the uncertainty about the future remains high. A potential third wave poses a negative risk to the forecast, as it would slow down economic recovery. Thanks to progressing vaccination however, its impact on the economy could be somewhat milder compared to the second wave of the pandemic. On the plus side though, private consumption could increase faster than in our baseline projetions if households opt to spend more of their savings accummulated at the beginning of the year.