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The Ministry of Finance’s latest forecast for the development of the Slovak economy, published yesterday, probably did not surprise any of the interested parties. Since September 2007, positive development trends have been confirmed as regards gross domestic production, consumption, investment, and export, and therefore also employment and real wages.
Development of the foreign trade balance also seems more positive. Even though the latest forecast for gross domestic product growth in 2008 contains a 0.7 percentage point upward revision, to a new forecast of 7.5% of GDP, we still believe that GDP growth is gradually stabilizing, and that in the near future growth rates will be at a level not exceeding the record figures in recent years. The increase in the GDP growth forecast also takes into account the expected accession of
The most significant change concerns the forecasted inflation rate. This year the harmonized inflation rate is expected to reach 3.1%, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the forecast in September 2007. Increase in food and oil prices were undoubtedly among the causes. However, inflation is growing throughout the entire Eurozone, and despite this higher inflation rate forecast, the projected rate should stay below the reference level, and by a sufficient margin.
The continuing positive macroeconomic trends in the development of the economy and a prudent fiscal policy create a very good basis for macroeconomic stability which is the foundation of further business growth and improvements in living standards of the population.
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